Japan LDP election: How Sanae Takaichi's big day unfolded

TOKYO -- Lawmakers and rank-and-file party members of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) today picked Sanae Takaichi as its first female leader -- and likely the nation's first woman prime minister -- to replace the outgoing Shigeru Ishiba.

Takaichi, an arch conservative, defeated Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, the current chief cabinet secretary, Takayuki Kobayashi and veteran lawmaker Toshimitsu Motegi.

Further reading:

- Japan's Sanae Takaichi: National security hawk and Abenomics torchbearer

- Japan LDP leadership race highlights policies on foreigners as major issue

- What polling shows about Japan's LDP leadership vote: 5 things to know

- Japan LDP leadership candidates promise to help working-age people

- Japan's LDP has an identity crisis

- LDP leadership race fuels debate over Japan's defense budget

- LDP candidates need to discuss Japan's place in a global context

Here's how the day unfolded: (Tokyo time)

6:52 p.m. - Some key quotes from Takaichi's post-victory press conference.

- On rising prices and the government's relationship with the Bank of Japan:

"Demand-pull inflation -- wage increases driving demand growth, leading to a gradual rising of prices and corporate profits -- is the best outcome. Until such a situation emerges, we must maintain close communication with the Bank of Japan, "she said. "We must stay in sync [with the BOJ]."

- On whether she would visit Yasukuni shrine, where many of Japan's war dead (including Class-A war criminals) are enshrined:

"Yasukuni Shrine is a central facility for commemorating the war dead and a shrine dedicated to peace. I will make timely and appropriate judgments regarding how to conduct these commemorations and how to pray for peace," she said. "This absolutely should not be turned into a diplomatic issue. I intend to work diligently to create an international environment where we can mutually honor those who gave their lives for their homeland."

- On potential coalition partners:

Takaichi said that "the LDP-Komeito coalition is fundamental," adding that she met with Tetsuo Saito, head of Komeito, immediately after the leadership election. Regarding other parties, she expressed the hope that if mutual agreements could be reached with parties sharing basic common ground, it would be desirable to form a coalition.

- On U.S.-Japan trade:

"I'll firmly uphold what has been agreed between the two countries such as tariffs and investments," she said. "If any issues arise that are incompatible with Japan's national interests, I think we will firmly state our position within the framework of Japan-U.S. discussions. I will not overturn what Japan and U.S. have agreed."

6:07 p.m. - Takaichi's first press conference as party leader has started. Stick around for the key quotes.

5:50 p.m. - Sohei Kamiya, leader of the right-wing opposition party Sanseito that surged to prominence in the recent upper house election, said that Takaichi "holds policies close to our party's, and we accept the outcome with expectations. ...We intend to cooperate without hesitation on policies that serve the national interest."

5:25 p.m. - Yoshinobu Tsutsui, head of the Japan Business Federation, or Keidanren, commented: "As the first female president [of the LDP], we expect her to fully demonstrate her skills in revitalizing the LDP and implementing its policies."

5:18 p.m. - The messages from foreign countries are starting to flood in now. Here's the U.K. ambassador:

5:08 p.m. - The Israeli ambassador to Japan congratulates Takaichi on becoming her party's first female leader.

4:59 p.m - The question now is what Takaichi (presuming she becomes PM) will be able to do as the head of a minority government in terms of cooperation with other parties. Will she reach out to parties such as Democratic Party For the People or the Japan Innovation Party? And let's not forget there is question mark over whether junior coalition partner Komeito will want to remain in government with an LDP led by Takaichi.

In a meeting with supporters after her victory, Takaichi touched on this issue, saying: "Starting with a meeting with our ally Komeito's leader, we must do so many things."

Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura, who leads the Japan Innovation Party, congratulated Takaichi and described her as a "policy expert." While noting that no coalition talks have been initiated and thus he had nothing to say at this time, he added, "If there is a request for coalition talks, it would be natural to discuss it."

4:43 p.m. - Taiwan's foreign minister congratulated Takaichi on her victory. "I'm honored to have met her many times. I thank her for her friendship and support of Taiwan for many years. I hope we can have even closer relations with Japan and that Taiwan-Japan cooperation can be raised to a higher level," Lin Chia-lung said in a Japanese language post on X.

4:25 p.m. - Ahead of Takaichi's first formal press conference as party chief at 6 p.m. JST, she will address her supporters.

4:23 p.m. - Japan expert Tobias Harris writes that the LDP has returned to "Abe-ism."

"In an electoral campaign in which the candidates tried to downplay conflict and disagreement, Takaichi was unique in her willingness to separate herself from the field on policy issues. For example, although she softened her advocacy of fiscal expansionism relative to last year, she still endorsed increasing the use of deficit bonds. She also warned that it could be necessary to renegotiate the trade deal with the United States if it turns out that the benefits are one-sided in favor of the US, though she will likely try to use her relationship with Abe to build a foundation for working with Donald Trump.

On the whole, she wants to go even further than Abe in building out a security establishment that will defend the Japanese people from a broader range of threats, including not only military threats, but economic security, food security, and, as she emphasized during the campaign, the threats posed by Japan's growing foreign population and over-tourism. And her long-standing embrace of controversial positions of Japan's behavior during World War II risks undoing some of the progress made in strengthening Japan's bilateral relationship with South Korea and undoing some of the efforts to stabilize Japan's relationship with China over the past year."

3:50 p.m. - The U.S. ambassador to Japan has commented:

3:35 p.m. - Takaichi added: "Everyone [LDP lawmakers] will be required to work -- work like a horse. I will abandon the notion of work-life balance. Work, work, work, work, work -- that is what I will do. I sincerely ask each and every one of you to work tirelessly in your respective fields for the sake of Japan and to rebuild the LDP."

3:31 p.m. - In her victory speech, Takaichi said: "Rather than feeling happy right now, I truly believe that the real challenge lies ahead, and there are mountains of work we must tackle together with everyone. There are numerous policies, many of which must be implemented swiftly. And together with everyone, we must also work to make the Liberal Democratic Party a more spirited and vibrant party, a party that transforms the anxieties of many people into hope."

Her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, looked at the bigger picture: "I have had the opportunity to speak with many national leaders. Every country is grappling with conflict and turmoil. Our nation must, above all else, demonstrate solidarity and tolerance to the world... This past year has made me keenly aware of how much the world needs Japan. We must respond to that need. For the sake of our nation, our people, the world, and the next generation, I earnestly pray that under the leadership of our new President Takaichi, we can all unite as one and that the LDP can fulfill its role."

3:22 p.m. - Takaichi gave a short speech (highlights coming soon). In the meantime please take a look at our short video about who she is.

Also, please take a look at our profile of Takaichi.

3:00 p.m. - Takaichi defeats Koizumi by 185 votes to 156.

2:55 p.m. - Takaichi wins.

2:46 p.m. - The run-off votes are now being counted.

2:43 p.m. - Tobias Harris, author of a biography on former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, assess the chances of Takaichi and Koizumi in an emailed note.

"Whether Takaichi can avoid another come-from-behind defeat in the second round will ultimately depend on whether she is able to convince enough lawmakers that the strength of her support from rank-and-file supporters -- she appears to have received roughly 40% of the vote, outperforming polling - that she has the strength to revive the party's fortunes and rebuild its public support. She may have gotten some encouraging news from Aso Taro, who reportedly suggested before the vote that he would support the candidate who won the popular vote, but it is unclear whether Aso will be able to bring along his faction members. Her strength across the country -- winning thirty prefectures outright, a total that will be higher than she finished second in a number of others --could mean that she needs to flip only 73 lawmaker votes.

Meanwhile, for Koizumi to pull off an upset, he will probably have to pick up something like 82 votes in the second round. He is presumably more likely than Takaichi to pick up Hayashi Yoshimasa's 72 votes from lawmakers, which together with the 10-12 prefectural votes he appears likely to win would leave Koizumi needing to pick up another ten votes from either Kobayashi Takayuki's 44 lawmakers or Motegi's 34 lawmakers.

Looking at these numbers, Koizumi may have more of a pathway to 172 - if he can take most or all of Hayashi's votes plus a portion of Kobayashi's and Motegi's he wins -- whereas Takaichi likely needs all of Kobayashi's and Motegi's, plus a defection or two from Hayashi or Koizumi.

Whoever prevails, it appears that the margin of victory could be even closer than Ishiba Shigeru's 21-vote victory over Takaichi in 2024."

2:20 p.m. - Here are some highlights of the two remaining candidates' short speeches.

Koizumi: "I became convinced in this presidential election that the LDP still possesses the power to serve the people... Let us unite the LDP together, move politics forward, and propel Japan forward."

Takaichi: "I decided to run in this presidential election because of a profound sense of crisis: the LDP must change for the sake of Japan's present and future. I want to create a politics that transforms the anxieties about daily life and the future into hope."

2:09 p.m. - In the run off, the two candidates will be aiming to get a majority of the 341 votes up for grabs (294 from lawmakers and 47 from party members by prefecture.) One lawmaker vote was either invalid or not cast. The race will depend now on where the votes for the losing candidates go.

2:07 p.m. - Takaichi and Koizumi have both just given short speeches ahead of the run-off. Will bring you their main points shortly.

1:59 p.m. - The results are as follows:

1:50 p.m. - Takaichi wins the first round, and will head to a run-off with Koizumi.

1:42 p.m. - First round results should be coming soon. Officials are double checking the ballots.

1:27 p.m. - Voting by lawmakers ends. Counting expected to take around 20 minutes.

1:20 p.m. - As LDP lawmakers continue to cast their ballots, here's a reminder of how the voting system works.

1:07 p.m. -

1:04 p.m. - Voting begins. Lawmakers are called one-by-one to walk up to the stage and cast their votes.

1:02 p.m. - The five candidates have taken their seats in the packed hall at LDP headquarters.

12:51 p.m. - Public broadcaster NHK is reporting that Takaichi had the most party member votes in 20 of the 26 prefectures counted so far. Koizumi had three, Hayashi was on two and Motegi won in his home prefecture of Tochigi. Twenty-one are still to be decided.

Overall, among party members, Takaichi was leading with 41.4%, followed by Koizumi (26.3%), Hayashi (19.4%), Motegi (7.0%) and Kobayashi (5.9%).

12:32 p.m. - Kyodo reported that Senior LDP adviser Taro Aso, a former prime minister, has told associates he intends to support the candidate who receives the most party member votes in the first round if a runoff is held.

12:22 p.m. - The candidates have been busy attending events this morning.

12:15 p.m. - LDP staff have been counting votes from members for a few hours.

12:05 p.m. - Takaichi and Koizumi have started online streaming of their campaign rallies on their YouTube channels.

On X, Motegi posted: "I'm truly supported by the best people. Thank you for all your support. I will fight till the end with my people."

Kobayashi posted: "The battle day has finally come. I'll do my best until the end." While Hayashi talked about sports.

Separately, Kyodo News reported on comments made by the candidates this morning

- Hayashi: "I want to convey my passion until the very last moment and face this contest with determination."

- Takaichi: "I will do everything in my power and then leave the outcome to fate. By uniting all generations, I will strongly rebuild the Liberal Democratic Party."

- Koizumi: "I want to create opportunities for each individual to shine and build an 'all-hands' Liberal Democratic Party."

Noon - Welcome to today's blog. While we are waiting for results, please take a look at some charts we have made in the past few weeks to preview this key election.